Retirement Expectations and Pension Reforms

نویسندگان

  • Tullio Jappelli
  • Mario Padula
  • Renata Bottazzi
چکیده

We estimate the effect of pension reforms on households’ expectations of retirement outcomes and wealth accumulation decisions exploiting a decade of pension reforms as a source of exogenous variation in expected pension wealth. Two parameters are crucial to estimate pension wealth: the age at which workers expect to retire and the expected ratio of pension benefits to pre-retirement income. The Survey of Household Income and Wealth, a large random sample of the Italian population, elicits these expectations during a period of intense pension reforms between 1989 and 2000. These reforms had different consequences for different cohorts and employment groups, providing a quasi-experimental framework to study the effect of social security arrangements on expectations of retirement outcomes and household saving decisions. We find substantial offset between private wealth and perceived pension wealth. However, the Italian pension reforms had only limited impact on private accumulation, because people have not internalized the changes implied by the reform.

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تاریخ انتشار 2003